CBAM

What the CBAM certificate will cost

The CBAM bill is not a flat rate per tonne. It depends on your emissions, on how much free allocation is deducted and on the certificate price. The formula, the prices published so far and a worked example.

By Brahim Eloidii, Co-Founder, ESG & CSR Lead

Published 31 October 2026 · Sources last checked 24 October 2026

The formula

For each CBAM good in a year, the Commission explains that the number of certificates to surrender depends on the quantity imported and the specific embedded emissions, reduced by the specific embedded free allocation, and, where relevant, by the emissions already covered by a carbon price effectively paid in the country of origin. If the result for a good is negative, it is set to zero.

The certificate price

The price follows the EU emissions trading system. In 2026 the Commission calculates one price per quarter, as the weighted average of the auction clearing prices of EU allowances over that quarter. From 2027 it publishes a price every week, again weighted by auction volumes. The prices published so far, from the Commission’s own page:

Certificates for imports made in 2026 are sold from 1 February 2027, through the common central platform. That is a later date than the one on which the 2026 emissions occur, so the price an importer actually pays depends on the prices in force when it buys and surrenders, and this article cannot predict it.

The free allocation adjustment and the CBAM factor

EU producers in these sectors still receive part of their emissions allowances free of charge, and that free allocation is being phased out between 2026 and 2034. To treat importers on an equal footing, CBAM deducts a matching adjustment. The adjustment is built from benchmarks, so an importer pays in full only for emissions above the benchmark level. It is scaled by the CBAM factor, which rises as free allocation falls. There is no such adjustment for electricity.

The factor is the Commission’s percentage of the benchmark level that CBAM covers. In 2026 it is 2.5%, so the phase-out has only just begun and almost all of the benchmark free allocation is still deducted from your emissions. By 2034 the free allocation is gone and the full embedded emissions are covered. The rules for the calculation are in Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025/2620. If you declare on actual data, the adjustment follows your actual production route. If you declare on default values, it uses default values for free allocation too.

The carbon price paid in the country of origin

The importer can reduce the number of certificates by the carbon price effectively paid in the country of origin on the declared emissions. Only a price actually paid counts, and any rebate or compensation, such as free allowances under a trading scheme, is taken into account. The Commission planned an implementing act in 2026 on how the deduction is evidenced, including currency conversion and the certification of payment by an independent person. If your country has a carbon tax or trading system, keep the proof of payment from the start.

Why actual data and default values give different bills

Default values come with a mark-up that rises over the years, so that emissions are not underestimated. The Commission says it should in most cases be more advantageous for a declarant to use actual values where they are available. The difference is the gap between your real emissions and the default, multiplied by the certificate price. That is the saving verified data can create for your customer.

Who pays, and when

• The legal obligation sits with the importer, the authorised CBAM declarant. How the cost is shared with you is a commercial question, so raise it with your customers early.
• The annual declaration, and the surrender of certificates, is due by 30 September, and for the first time by 30 September 2027 for the year 2026.
• From 2027, once an importer is over the threshold, it must buy each calendar quarter certificates covering at least 50% of the emissions embedded in the goods imported since the start of the year.
• After the declaration and surrender, an authorised declarant may have remaining certificates repurchased by the Member State where it is established. Certificates can only be surrendered, repurchased or cancelled.

What to do with this

1. Work out your own range: your emissions per tonne of product on default values and on actual data, the current factor and a price from the table above.
2. Show your customers the difference between the two. It is the reason they should prefer a supplier with verified data.
3. Ask each customer which certificate price and which declaration method they are budgeting for.
4. Keep evidence of any carbon price paid in your country, so a deduction can be claimed.
5. Revisit the numbers each year, because the factor rises and the default mark-up rises, so the cost of staying on defaults grows.

The free CBAM Compass Report does this arithmetic for your products on default values and shows the cost per tonne your buyers may face, in about three minutes.